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Best Film
The nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings, Moulin Rouge
Who will win: either A Beautiful Mind or Lord of the Rings
Who should win: In the Bedroom
Who should've been nominated: Royal Tenenbaums, Lantana, In the Mood for Love
As befitting a wide-open year, the choice for best film is a tough one. With the exception of the small In the Bedroom, which will get noticed for its acting performances, any of the other four nominees has a legitimate shot of taking home the big trophy. Lord of the Rings is a brilliant technical achievement, though the story lacks a little something. Moulin Rouge is a glorious, emotional roller coaster, though it's not the sort of movie the Academy usually honors. A Beautiful Mind is the sort of movie Oscar notices, but there's some trouble with its approach to real life. And Gosford Park is a directing tour de force, but it might leave some voters cold. To be honest, I'd be comfortable with any of those choices, though
I'll go with In the Bedroom if I have to choose one.

Best Actor
The nominees: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind; Sean Penn, I Am Sam; Will Smith, Ali; Denzel Washington, Training Day, Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom
Who will win: Denzel Washington (I think), though Crowe might make it two in a row
Who should win: either Denzel or Tom Wilkinson
Who should've been nominated: Gene Hackman, Royal Tenenbaums; Billy Bob Thornton, The Man Who Wasn't There; Anthony LaPaglia, Lantana; Tony Leung, In the Mood for Love
There were some great acting performances in 2001, so it's a travesty that Sean Penn was nominated for his shameless performance in I Am Sam. Not only is that nowhere near as good as some of his earlier performances, we don't want to encourage this sort of Oscar-mongering from other otherwise respected actors. And I liked Will Smith, but the fact that he beat out both Hackman and Thornton can only be attributed to the Academy trying to rectify previous racial wrongs. Speaking of past racial wrongs, the big
question in this category (and maybe of the entire night) is whether Denzel will finally get the Best Actor statue. Sympathy is certainly on his side, as his main competitor won last year and isn't the most popular man in Hollywood. But Washington's performance comes in a pretty average movie that features a lot of violence, something for which the older Academy doesn't care. And I guess it's possible Wilkinson, who was brilliant in In the Bedroom, might sneak in, though I doubt it.

Best Actress
The nominees: Halle Berry, Monster's Ball; Judi Dench, Iris; Nicole Kidman,
Moulin Rouge; Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom; Renee Zellweger, Bridget
Jones's Diary
Who will win: Sissy Spacek
Who should win: Sissy Spacek
Who should've been nominated: Tilda Swinton, The Deep End
Ahhh, an easy one! Spacek wins in a cakewalk, unless the Academy suddenly
gets interested in Halle Berry's breasts. If Dench or Zellweger win, look
for me dressed in sackcloth on the corner of Harper and 53rd.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Jim Broadbent, Iris; Ethan Hawke, Training Day; Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast; Ian McKellen, Lord of the Rings; Jon Voigt, Ali
Who will win: Kingsley, Voigt, or McKellen  (who knows)
Who should win: McKellen
Who should've been nominated: Steve Buscemi, Ghost World!!!
The outrageous snub of Steve Buscemi is the most offensive oversight of this year's Oscars. Though I actually liked McKellen's performance as Gandalf better, there's no denying that Buscemi's is his finest and that's saying a lot. For the Academy to miss that (and to nominate Ethan Hawke!) is a travesty. As for who will actually win, that I have no idea. I hope it's not Kingsley who sacrificed subtlety for outrageousness in Sexy Beast.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind; Helen Mirren, Gosford Park; Maggie Smith, Gosford Park; Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom; Kate Winslet, Iris
Who will win: either Connelly or Mirren
Who should win: a tough one--anyone besides Tomei would be fine, though I think I'd pick Maggie Smith if I had to
Who should've been nominated: these are fine...it wasn't a great year for female roles, not that that's anything new
My friend Garth was ribbing me last week about how I often swoon over young Asian actresses in these pages, something I hadn't noticed to be honest. I found that strange, since Jennifer Connelly is the actress I actually swoon over. So I'm having a difficult time picking who will win this category. I suspect the two Gosford Park ladies will split each other's votes, and Kate Winslet hasn't received a lot of buzz, which leaves Connelly standing on the podium in two weeks. Or maybe that's just my hormones dreaming.

Best Director
The nominees: Robert Altman, Gosford Park; Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind; Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings; David Lynch, Mulholland Drive; Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Who will win: either Altman or Howard
Who should win: in a perfect world, Wong Kar-Wai for In the Mood for Love
Who should've been nominated: Wong Kar-Wai for In the Mood for Love, but now it's my heart that's dreaming
The wide-open nature of 2001 shows itself best in this category, where two directors were nominated though their films were overlooked. I don't think either Lynch or Scott have much of a chance, and Peter Jackson was more of an administrator than a visionary with Lord of the Rings. So it comes down to two guys who've been nominated on numerous occasions but have never taken home the big prize. Altman has critical acclaim going for him, while Opie has visibility and box-office cache. I suspect Howard will spend
another Oscar night clapping for someone else.

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Amelie, Gosford Park, Memento, Monster's Ball, Royal Tenenbaums Who will win: Memento
Who should win: Memento is fine, though I have a soft spot for Royal Tenenbaums
Who should've been nominated: Man Who Wasn't There
Let me get one thing straight. Amelie, Gosford Park, and Monster's Ball can't hold a candle to the scripts of Memento and Royal Tenenbaums. All three of those films have serious narrative flaws, while Memento and Royal Tenenbaums are brilliant bursts of creativity. If Memento doesn't win,
it'll be a true sign of how old the Academy is.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Ghost World, In the Bedroom, Lord of the Rings, Shrek!?
Who will win: A Beautiful Mind
Who should win: Lord of the Rings
Though I'm not a huge fan of Lord of the Rings, it should win this category just for the credible job it did of adapting its source material. The risks in taking a beloved (and complicated novel) and transferring it to the big screen are huge. Lord of the Rings succeeded not only in thrilling the average moviegoer but satisfying the hard-core fan. That's impressive.

Best Animated Film
The nominees: Jimmy Neutron, Boy Genius; Monsters, Inc.; Shrek
Who will win: Where is Waking Life??
Who should win: Where is Waking Life??
Who should've been nominated: oh, never mind
Shrek, by virtue of its box office clout, wins, and thereby reminds everyone of what a stupid category this is.

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration
The nominees: Amelie, Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Lord of the Rings, Moulin Rouge
Who will win: probably Lord of the Rings, though Moulin Rouge could steal it
Who should win: Moulin Rouge
Who should've been nominated: Spy Kids, In the Mood for Love

Best Cinematography
The nominees: Amelie, Black Hawk Down, Lord of the Rings, Man Who Wasn't There, Moulin Rouge
Who will win: either Lord of the Rings or Man Who Wasn't There
Who should win: Man Who Wasn't There (easy choice)
Who should've been nominated: In the Mood for Love (can you tell I liked this movie?)

Best Sound
The nominees: Amelie, Black Hawk Down, Lord of the Rings, Moulin Rouge, Pearl Harbor
Who will win: Lord of the Rings (usually the film with the most nominations sweeps these technical categories)
Who should win: Black Hawk Down

Best Score
The nominees: AI, A Beautiful Mind, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone, Lord of the Rings, Monster's Inc.
Who will win: Lord of the Rings
Who should win: anyone but John Williams, James Horner, and Randy Newman (who should all never be nominated again)
Who should've been nominated: In the Mood for Love, Moulin Rouge, Royal Tenenbaums

Best Foreign Film
The nominees: El Hijo de la novia, No Man's Land, Amelie, Lagaan, Elling 
Who will win: Amelie (the easiest choice of the night)
Who should win: Lagaan
I was so pleased to see Lagaan, the three-hour Bollywood movie about cricket, get nominated. It has no chance of beating out Amelie, but at least now other people might have a chance of seeing it. I wonder which French actors they'll choose to give this award away. I'm guessing Juliette Binoche and some big-nosed French guy.

And the real winner of the night is whoever gets to design Jennifer Connelly's dress.