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This past Oscar/holiday season was one of the best for new movies in recent memory. Whether your tastes ran to blockbuster epics or quirky comedies or serious dramas or zip-bang musicals, there was quality entertainment for you. Given the extraordinarily high number of great films, it was merely inevitable that there'd be some disappointments when Oscar nominations were announced. What I didn't expect, though, was that the Academy would actually look beyond the cream of the crop and honor movies and performances that were just average or worse.

All that to say, there are a number of categories in this year's Oscar race where I'm actively rooting for and against certain nominees. My experience, though, is that kind of passion isn't good for the Oscar pool. Winning the respect of your office co-workers requires a steady, unflinching eye; you have to put aside your own preferences and guess what will win, not what should win. In that spirit, I offer my fourth annual guide to the Oscars.

Best Picture
The nominees: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist
Who should win: The Lord of the Rings
Who will win: either The Hours or The Pianist  (oh, I hope it's not Chicago)
Who should've been nominated: 25th Hour, Y Tu Mama Tambien
My own strong preference shines through in the first category. I really like both The Two Towers and The Hours and, unfortunately, don't care much for the other three nominees. Gangs of New York is an impressive
accomplishment but in the service of dubious history and worse morality. The Pianist is an impressive accomplishment in its portrayal of Holocaust morality, but the narrative is too turgid and emotionally arrested. And Chicago might be a great time, but let's be honest. It's not a great movie. The decision to cast actresses who aren't singers or dancers makes for wonderful acting and embarrassing attempts to mask their flaws. For a dance movie, the editing in Chicago is atrocious, never giving you a chance to actually see the footwork and choreography. That this piece of fluff was nominated over much more substantial fare like 25th Hour and Y Tu Mama Tambien is a serious mistake.

Best Actress
The nominees: Salma Hayek, Frida; Nicole Kidman, The Hours; Diane Lane, Unfaithful; Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven; Renee Zellweger, Chicago
Who should win: Julianne Moore
Who will win: either Moore or Nicole Kidman
Who should've been nominated: Thandie Newton, Truth about Charlie It wasn't such a good year for lead actress roles (what else is new?). Not that any of these five are unworthy, but in a good year, only Moore and Kidman would've made the grade. And that's who's going to battle it out for Oscar glory. Though I loved The Hours and thought Kidman's performance was haunting, I have trouble seeing how anyone could find it better than Moore's towering performance in Far from Heaven. But the early awards season has favored Kidman, so I guess that's as likely as not. Which would be a shame. Moore's work in Heaven is one of the best acting performances
of the last several years; to lose to someone who had barely a half-hour of screen time is simply wrong.

Best Actor
The nominees: Adrien Brody, The Pianist; Nicolas Cage, Adaptation; Michael Caine, The Quiet American; Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York; Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
Who should win: Nicolas Cage
Who will win: either Jack or Dan
Who should've been nominated: Campbell Scott, Roger Dodger; Edward Norton, 25th Hour; Hugh Grant, About a Boy
While the women struggle to find roles worthy of their talent, the men are awash in powerhouse parts. Which is why Michael Caine's umpteenth nomination really sticks in my craw. Come on, Academy. Caine was merely
rehashing the role he's been doing his whole career. Yeah, his Oscar speech of a few years ago was nice and all, but do you really think he was better than Scott, Norton, or Grant? No, it's just wrong. At least Nicholson added a new wrinkle to his acting chops and deserves his nomination. He doesn't deserve to win, but he might. Daniel-Day Lewis will win if Jack doesn't, and that's ok. His performance was nicely flashy, but it's Nic Cage's that truly defined greatness.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Kathy Bates, About Schmidt; Julianne Moore, The Hours; Queen Latifah, Chicago; Meryl Streep, Adaptation; Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago 
Who should win: Meryl Streep
Who will win: a real tossup, anyone except for the Queen has a chance Who should've been nominated: Samantha Morton, Minority Report The supporting categories are always interesting, just because they're
usually so unpredictable. This category is especially so. Moore could win as a consolation prize for not taking home Best Actress, Zeta-Jones could win because we didn't expect it of her, Bates has received great acclaim
and deservedly so, and Streep might overcome the handicap of having won many times before just because she's so fantastic. I'm guessing all those folk who voted for Nicole Kidman will give Moore their vote here, and that pushes her over the top.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Chris Cooper, Adaptation; Ed Harris, The Hours; Paul Newman, Road to Perdition; John C. Reilly, Chicago; Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You can
Who should win: Christopher Walken
Who will win: Chris Cooper (and that's ok, too)
Who should've been nominated: Dennis Quaid, Far from Heaven; Kenneth Branagh, Rabbit-proof Fence
Ok, let me say this up-front. Paul Newman is one of the great screen icons of all time, but his performance in Road to Perdition is not award-worthy. Why is the Academy feeling sorry for old men this year? Either of the Chris's are worthy, and they're probably each other's biggest competition.

Best Director
The nominees: Pedro Almodovar, Talk to Her; Stephen Daldry, The Hours; Rob Marshall, Chicago; Roman Polanski, The Pianist; Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York
Who should win: Peter Jackson, The Two Towers (oh wait, he wasn't nominated)
Who will win: Martin Scorsese
Who should've been nominated: uh, Jackson or maybe Spike Lee or maybe Alfonso Cuaron (Y Tu Mama Tambien) Marty wins by default. Marshall and Daldry merely had the fortune of having great material and star power performers, so they can't win. The Academy will, rightly or wrongly, assume that Pedro is just happy to be nominated. And it's unlikely the voters will choose someone who can't even be there to accept his award (Polanski). So that leaves Scorsese to pick up his lifetime achievement award, while the real nominees--Jackson, Lee, and Cuaron--watch on tv.

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: Talk to Her, Gangs of New York, Y Tu Mama Tambien, Far from Heaven, My Big Fat Green Wedding
Who should win: Y Tu Mama Tambien
Who will win: maybe Talk to Her, but I'm not sure
Who should've been nominated: Roger Dodger, Sunshine State, Barbershop My friend Garth asked me if I thought My Big Fat Greek Wedding had been snubbed by getting only one Oscar nomination. I retorted it should be happy for what it got. Like the director category, none of my favorites was nominated, which leaves me unprepared to say who actually will win. If I thought enough of the Academy even bothered to see Y Tu Mama Tambien, I'd give that a good shot. But it ain't happening.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: Chicago, The Hours, The Pianist, About a Boy, Adaptation
Who should win: Adaptation
Who will win: Adaptation
Who should've been nominated: 25th Hour, The Two Towers
Finally, a category where who I think should win actually will win. I'm looking forward to Charlie Kaufman's speech.

Best Cinematography
The nominees: Chicago, Far from Heaven, Gangs of New York, The Pianist, Road to Perdition
Who should win: anyone but Chicago (did the Academy actually pay attention to the cinematography in that film, or did they just see the word Chicago and check the box?)
Who will win: Far from Heaven
Who should've been nominated: Bloody Sunday, Rabbit-proof Fence, The Fast Runner
I wouldn't mind if Conrad Hall won posthumously for Road to Perdition. I can't remember a movie since The Godfather that had such an expressive use of black and gray. But Edward Lachman's fall colors in Far from Heaven are the most beautiful thing I've seen in movies all year long. I suspect the Academy will agree.

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration
The nominees: Chicago, Friday, Gangs of New York, The Two Towers, Road to Perdition
Who should win: The Two Towers
Who will win: Gangs of New York
Who should've been nominated: Far from Heaven
I was watching Roger Ebert last night, and he predicted a Chicago landslide. Oh, I hope not. It would be particularly galling in this category. Chicago (the movie, not the city) is all flash and no substance, unlike The Two Towers or Gangs of New York. As much as I dislike Gangs of New York, its ability to evoke mid-19th century New York is fantastic. Of course, The Two Towers is just breathtakingly beautiful.

Best Score
The nominees: Far from Heaven, The Hours, Frida, Road to Perdition, Catch Me If You Can
Who should win: anyone but Philip Glass's mind-numbing Hours score
Who will win: Far from Heaven, but I'm just guessing now
Who should've been nominated: It is an absolute crime that Jon Brion's brilliant score for Punch-drunk Love isn't even a candidate

Best Sound
The nominees: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Two Towers, Road to Perdition, Spider-Man
Who should win: The Two Towers
Who will win: probably Chicago, though Two Towers might squeak in

Best Foreign Film
The nominees: El Crimen del Padre Amaro, Hero, The Man without a Past, Nowhere in Africa, Zus and Zo
Who should win: due to the Academy's different rules for foreign films, the only movie I've even had a chance to see is El Crimen del Padre Amaro. So I'll have to abstain.
Who will win: I'll guess Hero, as it's the sort of big-budget epic the Academy likes

And all of Hollywood is just hoping George W. waits an extra week to drop the bombs. Otherwise, Oscar night will be strangely somber.