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Best Picture
The nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Lost in Translation; Master and Commander; Mystic River; Seabiscuit
Who should win: Return of the King
Who will win: Return of the King
Who should've been nominated: Finding Nemo, though I guess it has to be happy with its own category
I never thought I'd say this about the Oscars, but I would be genuinely happy with any of these nominees taking home the statue. They're all strong choices, combining powerful stories with exquisite craft and inspired direction. If I had to choose, I'd pick Return of the King, with its impressive battle sequences and epic grandeur. But Lost in Translation has a wonderful sense of grace about it, with the finest performance of the year, and Master and Commander is a rip-roaring sea adventure told with verve. Mystic River and Seabiscuit seem a little slight in comparison, but they both embody classic storytelling virtues and feature top-notch performances. If nothing else, the Academy should be congratulated for not taking the bait on Cold Mountain.

Best Documentary
The nominees: Balseros; Capturing the Friedmans; The Fog of War; My Architect; The Weather Underground
Who should win: The Fog of War
Who will win: Capturing the Friedmans
Who should've been nominated: Stevie, Spellbound, among many others
Once I get past the utter disappointment of not seeing either Stevie or Spellbound on the list, I'm then frustrated not to see Bus 174 or The Revolution Will Not Be Televised or Rivers and Tides. It was a great year for docs, so I didn't expect the Academy to get all five choices right. But did they have to leave off so many of them? Well, at least they nominated The Fog of War, which is simply one of the finest and most relevant movies of the last year. Make sure you see it before it leaves the Music Box theater. As for the other nominees, I like Capturing the Friedmans and The Weather Underground, and I haven't seen Balseros or My Architect, though the latter opens here in a couple weeks. Capturing the Friedmans is almost a shoe-in, and in other years I'd be comfortable with that. But not this year. There were too many better documentaries.

Best Actress
The nominees: Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider; Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give; Samantha Morton, In America; Charlize Theron, Monster; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
Who should win: Miss Hughes
Who will win: Charlize Theron
Who should've been nominated: Scarlett Johansson, Girl with a Pearl Earring; Cate Blanchett, Veronica Guerin
It was such a nice surprise to see the young star of Whale Rider on the Best Actress list. She doesn't have a hope of winning, but it'll hopefully encourage people to check out the dvd. I wish Diane Keaton hadn't been nominated for that embarrassingly exaggerated performance, but the Academy does like its stars to show off. As I wrote earlier, Theron's acclaim is mostly due to the fact we thought she was just a pretty face. But as Halle Berry showed two years ago, that can be enough. A particularly down year for female roles helps, too.

Best Actor
The nominees: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Bill Murray, Lost in Translation; Sean Penn, Mystic River
Who should win: Bill Murray
Who will win: either Murray or Sean Penn
Who should've been nominated: Ralph Fiennes, Spider; Olivier Gourmet, The Son
Another wonderful surprise was seeing Johnny Depp's swishy performance get a nod. It almost makes up for finding Jude Law's name on the list (what was the Academy thinking?!). Bill Murray gave the performance of a lifetime, but I'm afraid the Academy might pick Penn's histrionics, thinking Murray's subtle humor not quite "actorly" enough. Ben Kingsley shows up (deservedly) to offer some dignity to the proceedings.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog; Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April; Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Holly Hunter, Thirteen; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Who should win: Renee Zellweger
Who will win: Zellweger
Who should've been nominated: Sara Bolger, In America; Judy Marte, Raising Victor Vargas; Miranda Richardson, Spider
I'm not a big fan of these nominations. Aghdashloo is fine, and I loved Zellweger's spitfire portrayal. But Clarkson, Harden, and Hunter have all done better work--in the past year, in fact. Clarkson was better in The Station Agent, Harden in Casa de los Babys, and Hunter in Levity. Meanwhile, the voters missed two fine young actresses in Bolger and Marte, both of whom have a bright future ahead. And what can you say about Richardson's multi-layered portrayal in Spider? That's real acting. Hopefully, this is the year Zellweger finally wins the big one.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams; Djimon Hounsou, In America; Tim Robbins, Mystic River; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
Who should win: Alec Baldwin
Who will win: either Baldwin or Tim Robbins
Who should've been nominated: Peter Sarsgaard, Shattered Glass
It is an absolute crime that Sarsgaard wasn't nominated, but then the Academy always prefers shouting and weeping (del Toro, Robbins, Hounsou) to nailing a part. Of course, it prefers the disabled most of all, but there seemed to be a strange lack of speech impediments this year. Alec Baldwin is a worthy nominee, and I hope he snags the gold, but Tim Robbins might beat him out. If nothing else, they can't accuse the voters of overlooking actors of color. This category's a veritable Benneton's ad.

Best Director
The nominees: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River; Peter Jackson, Return of the King; Fernando Meirelles, City of God; Peter Weir, Master and Commander
Who should win: Fernando Meirelles
Who will win: Peter Jackson
Who should've been nominated: Errol Morris, The Fog of War
Since the directors almost match the picture nominees, it's safe to say I'm happy with this list. But I'm even more pleased to find City of God getting such a high-profile nomination. I've mentioned it plenty of times in this space, but you really should check out that film. It's a masterpiece.

Best Foreign Film
The nominees: The Barbarian Invasions; Evil; The Twilight Samurai; Twin Sisters; Zelary
Who should win: Uh, Twilight Samurai, I guess
Who will win: The Barbarian Invasions, unfortunately
Who should've been nominated: Reconstruction, Journey to Jerusalem, The Return ...I could go on, but I won't
As I write every year, the foreign film category is such a strange one, since the potential movies are at the mercy of their respective country's film boards. If those people in charge don't like it, they don't submit it, and the Academy doesn't even have a chance to nominate it. It's doubly strange because the timing of the nominations often has nothing to do with when the movies are released in the U.S. So, for example, I've never even heard of Twin Sisters or Zelary, I haven't had a chance to see Evil, and the only reason I caught Twilight Samurai was because I saw it at the Chicago Film Festival last fall. I suspect the winner will be The Barbarian Invasions, a movie I find offensive for both its politics and its celebration of amorality.

Best Animated Film
The nominees: Brother Bear, Finding Nemo, The Triplets of Belleville
Who should win: Finding Nemo, though Triplets wouldn't be a horrible choice
Who will win: Finding Nemo
Who should've been nominated: Matrix Reloaded (ha ha)
The inclusion of Brother Bear is another reminder of what a stupid category this is. Absolutely no one in his right mind thinks Brother Bear should be nominated for anything but Most Boring Movie that Parents Have to Sit Through. Finding Nemo is worth a Best Picture nod, but no one voted for it because they knew it was a slam dunk in the animated category. The one bright spot is that Triplets of Belleville will get some much-deserved attention. It's an animated film the whole family (above the age of 9) can enjoy.

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: The Barbarian Invasions; Dirty Pretty Things; Finding Nemo; In America; Lost in Translation
Who should win: either Finding Nemo or In America
Who will win: Lost in Translation
Who should've been nominated: Raising Victor Vargas or The Station Agent
I have real problems with parts of the script for Lost in Translation (especially the way minor characters are portrayed), so I'm hoping that it doesn't win. But the Academy often uses the Screenplay awards as honorable mention prizes. A better choice would be the delightful Finding Nemo or the touching In America.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: American Splendor; City of God; Return of the King; Mystic River; Seabiscuit
Who should win: Return of the King, I guess
Who will win: Return of the King
Who should've been nominated: I'm surprised Master and Commander wasn't chosen, as it's an interesting and successful synthesis of two different novels

Best Cinematography
The nominees: City of God; Cold Mountain; Girl with a Pearl Earring; Master and Commander; Seabiscuit
Who should win: Girl with a Pearl Earring
Who will win: a real tossup, though Master and Commander has an edge
Who should've been nominated: Kill Bill, Vol. 1; Elephant
I was so thrilled to see City of God and Girl with a Pearl Earring get their proper recognition. Still, leaving off Robert Richardson's amazing work in Kill Bill shows how stodgy the Academy can be. I don't have a problem with Master and Commander taking the prize, though. Its subtle camera movement and the way the ship seems to come alive are worth celebrating.

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration
The nominees: Girl with a Pearl Earring; The Last Samurai; Return of the King; Master and Commander; Seabiscuit
Who should win: all worthy choices and all for different reasons
Who will win: Return of the King
Who should've been nominated: Kill Bill, Vol. 1
This is a fun category, as it's usually a celebration of pure beauty, and each of these films is beautiful in its own way. Girl is exquisite in the way it recreates a Vermeer painting, Samurai is gorgeous in its evocation of 19th-century Japan, Return is awesome in its scope, Commander features the most detailed ship seen on film, and Seabiscuit has a wonderful style about it.

Best Score
The nominees: Big Fish; Cold Mountain; Finding Nemo; House of Sand and Fog; Return of the King
Who should win: Return of the King
Who will win: Return of the King
Who should've been nominated: Triplets of Belleville; In this World; Kill Bill, Vol. 1

Best Song:
The nominees: "Belleville Rendezvous," Triplets of Belleville; "Into the West," Return of the King; "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow," A Mighty Wind; "Scarlet Tide," Cold Mountain; "You Will Be My Ain True Love," Cold Mountain
Who should win: A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow
Who will win: A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow
I don't usually mention the song category, as the choices are often insipid. This year, though, the Academy did itself right. I'm particularly pleased with the Triplets and Mighty Wind songs, as those are both fantastic numbers and important to their respective films.

Best Editing
The nominees: City of God; Cold Mountain; Return of the King; Master and Commander; Seabiscuit
Who should win: City of God
Who will win: either Return of the King or Master and Commander
Another category I often overlook, but I wanted to highlight the incredible editing in City of God, a film that uses all the editing tricks available and always to good use.

Best Visual Effects
The nominees: Return of the King; Master and Commander; Pirates of the Caribbean
Who should win: Return of the King
Who will win: Return of the King
Who should've been nominated: shouldn't Matrix Reloaded show up here?

Though Matrix Reloaded won't be at the Oscars, a lot of great films and filmmakers will be. The festivities start at 7 p.m. central time on Sun., Feb. 29.