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In the last few weeks, the Oscar buzz has centered less on who will win and more on the telecast itself. Host Chris Rock, in an obvious bit of calculation, has tried to stir up controversy with some off-color remarks. Producer Gil Cates has threatened to make the ceremony more celebrity-friendly by shunting all those "little" awards off the stage. And Oscar mavens everywhere are ringing their hands over the predicted decline in viewers. Apparently, Joe America doesn't watch the Academy Awards if he hasn't seen the nominated movies and, without a blockbuster like Titanic or Lord of the Rings in the running, he's more likely to watch a re-run of Saved by the Bell.

I am saddened but not surprised by these developments. In the last 20 years, the popular obsession with box office numbers, celebrity culture, and ludicrous list-making ("VH1's Top 20 hottest Hollywood couples," etc.) has marginalized any discussion of whether a movie's actually any good. So why would the one night devoted to quality in Hollywood escape this trend? But enough of my predictable whining. How about my own list? So I offer my sixth annual guide to the Oscars, with choices for who should win, who will win, and who should've been nominated.

Best Picture
The nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways
Who should win: Finding Neverland
Who will win: Million Dollar Baby
Who should've been nominated: Dogville, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Vera Drake
The nominees this year are a fine if uninspiring lot. I like Finding Neverland quite a bit, but I would never call it a Best Picture film. The other contenders are all fine (in other words, I won't be disappointed with whoever wins), but none of them are breaking any new ground or leaving audiences breathless. Give me the audacious excitement of Dogville, Eternal Sunshine, or Vera Drake any day.

Best Documentary
The nominees: Born into Brothels, Story of the Weeping Camel, Super Size Me, Tupac: Resurrection, Twist of Faith
Who should win: Story of the Weeping Camel
Who will win: Super Size Me
Who should've been nominated: The Five Obstructions
The documentary renaissance continues. I know that Super Size Me has tremendous popular appeal, but director Morgan Spurlock is just a Michael Moore wannabe with a catchy gimmick. Born into Brothels is tremendously powerful, but I'm not sure it's a great documentary. Story of the Weeping Camel, on the other hand, is both and richly deserving of Oscar glory.

Best Actress
The nominees: Annette Bening, "Being Julia"; Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"; Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"; Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"; Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Who should win: Imelda Staunton
Who will win: Annette Bening, I think
Who should've been nominated: Before the nominations were announced, I was all ready to put Ms. Moreno in this category, but then the Academy surprised me and honored her. So I'll point out Julie Delpy's rich performance in "Before Sunset" instead.
For the first time in years (maybe decades), there were more interesting and deserving female roles than their male counterparts. I can honestly say that any of these five nominees would've deserved to win last year, and it's a shame that they have to battle it out with each other. Still, Imelda Staunton gives a towering performance in "Vera Drake," one of the finest I've seen in my career as a critic. The star power of Bening will take the award, but it's Staunton we'll be talking about 20 years from now.

Best Actor
The nominees: Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"; Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Who should win: Uh, Paul Giamatti for "Sideways"
Who will win: Jamie Foxx
Who should've been nominated: The Oscar snub of Giamatti is not only inexplicable but embarrassing. No matter what you think of "Sideways," the fact of the matter is that the movie's strengths are impossible to imagine without Giamatti's strong, comic performance. That Eastwood's uninspiring turn stole a nomination is just baffling.

Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"; Laura Linney, "Kinsey"; Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"; Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"; Natalie Portman, "Closer"
Who should win: Virginia Madsen
Who will win: Cate Blanchett -- her spot-on imitation of Katherine Hepburn is one that Oscar voters will find very flattering
Who should've been nominated: Irma P. Hall, "The Ladykillers"; Maia Morgenstern, "The Passion of the Christ"
I'm not as excited about this category as I've been in the past. My friend Garth will hate me for saying it, but I'm not a big fan of either Okonedo's work in "Hotel Rwanda" or Portman's in "Closer." Maybe Oscar voters couldn't remember back to the spring, but Irma P. Hall's hilarious performance in "The Ladykillers" was by far the best thing about the movie, and Maia Morgenstern's powerful turn as the mother of Jesus brought a much needed infusion of humanity to that otherwise other-worldly film.

Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Alan Alda, "The Aviator"; Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"; Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"; Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"; Clive Owen, "Closer"
Who should win: Jamie Foxx
Who will win: Morgan Freeman
Who should've been nominated: Rodrigo De la Serna, "The Motorcycle Diaries"
I actually liked Foxx more in Michael Mann's "Collateral" than in "Ray." I found the latter to be more imitation than acting, while his amazing portrait of an everyman caught in a nightmare was fabulous. Still, I expect Morgan Freeman will win, not because this role necessarily deserves it (how many times can Freeman play the wise, black man?), but to make up for when he should've won for "Shawshank Redemption" and "Driving Miss Daisy."

Best Director
The nominees: Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"; Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"; Taylor Hackford, "Ray"; Alexander Payne, "Sideways"; Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"
Who should win: Mike Leigh
Who will win: Clint Eastwood
Who should've been nominated: Lars von Trier, "Dogville"; Michel Gondry, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"; Richard Linklater, "Before Sunset"
The drama of this category is whether Scorsese can finally win an Oscar (for admittedly lesser material than his great works of the '70s and '80s) or whether Eastwood, who was shut out last year, takes the prize this time around. I find it particularly irritating that the merely adequate (at best) directing of Hackford and Payne somehow charmed Oscar voters more than the stunning work of von Trier, Gondry, and Linklater. Shameful.

Best Foreign Film
The nominees: As It Is in Heaven, The Chorus, Downfall, The Sea Inside, Yesterday
Who should win: none of the above
Who will win: please don't let it be The Chorus
Who should've been nominated: where should I start?
As I mention every year, this category is a strange one, since many of the best candidates don't even make it to the starting line. Each country is allowed to submit only one film for consideration, and often the country's choice is not the best. Still, this lineup is particularly anemic. "The Chorus" and "The Sea Inside" are horrible, embarrassing, insufferable choices, I haven't seen "Downfall" since I can't imagine why we need another movie about Hitler, and the other two haven't screened in Chicago yet. If you're in an Oscar pool and you need to make a choice, go with Downfall--you can never go wrong with the Holocaust come Oscar time.

Best Animated Film
The nominees: The Incredibles, Shark Tale, Shrek 2
Who should win: The Incredibles
Who will win: The Incredibles
Who should've been nominated: no others, but then Shark Tale and Shrek 2 didn't deserve a nomination, either
I need to stop complaining, but there is something deeply, deeply wrong about Shark Tale receiving an award for anything. As I said last year, this is a foolish category and one that confuses quality with the number of tickets sold.

Best Original Screenplay
The nominees: The Aviator, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, Vera Drake
Who should win: either Vera Drake or the supremely original Eternal Sunshine
Who will win: hmm, good question--maybe The Aviator
Who should've been nominated: Dogville, Before Sunset
This is a tough category to predict. Charlie Kaufman's scripts always seem to come up short in the voting, and I expect the same will be true for Eternal Sunshine. Mike Leigh is well known for not writing a screenplay but instead working up his scripts through group improvisations, so that might hurt Vera Drake. I know there's a lot of love for Hotel Rwanda, but its screenplay isn't its strong point. Maybe this is where The Aviator picks up an award.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The nominees: Before Sunset, Finding Neverland, Million Dollar Baby, The Motorcycle Diaries, Sideways
Who should win: Before Sunset
Who will win: Million Dollar Baby
Who should've been nominated: Badassss!
This is a great category, as I think the screenplays for Before Sunset, Finding Neverland, and The Motorcycle Diaries are all brilliant adaptations of previous material. So it's especially disappointing that maybe the worst of the nominees, Million Dollar Baby, will walk off with the award--doesn't anyone notice the superficial secondary characters that litter that film?

Best Cinematography
The nominees: The Aviator, House of Flying Daggers, The Passion of the Christ, The Phantom of the Opera, A Very Long Engagement
Who should win: House of Flying Daggers
Who will win: The Aviator
Who should've been nominated: Dogville (a broken record I am), Million Dollar Baby

Best Art Direction
The nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, A Very Long Engagement
Who should win: The Aviator
Who will win: The Aviator
Who should've been nominated: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, The Village

Best Score
The nominees: Finding Neverland, Harry Potter and Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket, The Passion of the Christ, The Village
Who should win: I'm sad to say I don't remember the scores for any of these
Who will win: Finding Neverland
Who should've been nominated: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind--Jon Brion is a genius

I was telling my friend Garth the other day how badly I do in Oscar pools, so I'm not sure I can suggest that you use my picks as a guide. But if you do tune in this Sunday at 7 p.m. (Chicago time), I hope that you'll be just as interested in who wins as in what they wear.